Justin Trudeau was hoping his housing budget would reverse the government’s slide in popularity. Instead, things have gotten worse.
For the good of the Liberal Party he leads, the Prime Minister needs to think about his future.
The government gambled everything on this budget. Younger voters are unhappy. Economic uncertainty and high interest rates have worsened housing shortages, making ownership impossible and rent exorbitant for many. Their support has shifted emphatically from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
The budget’s answer: billions of dollars to support new housing starts, housing infrastructure and apartment construction, along with measures to make it easier to secure a first mortgage.
Party strategists hoped the housing-focused budget would narrow the huge gap in support between the two parties over the next few months by winning back younger voters. So far, it’s not working.
A Nanos postbudget poll showed Conservative support increasing to 42 per cent, with the Liberals down to 23 per cent. Ipsos has only 17 per cent of Canadians giving the budget two thumbs up, while 40 per cent give it two thumbs down. Similarly, Leger has half of all Canadians rejecting the budget and only 20 per cent welcoming it.
A capital-gains tax increase included in the budget may be part of the problem. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland insisted only the very rich would be forced to pay. But it turns out the very rich include family doctors, other small business owners and people hoping to sell the cottage one day.
It also didn’t help that everyone from former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge to Bill Morneau – the previous Liberal finance minister, for crying out loud – attacked the budget for increasing taxes in a time of weak productivity and little or no growth.
Mr. Trudeau is now ratcheting up his attacks on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who recently consorted with some anti-Trudeau protesters once again, and who has earned the dubious distinction of being endorsed by lunatic-fringe commentator Alex Jones in the United States.
But this isn’t likely to matter much to people whose mortgages are up for renewal.
The most important legislative item, outside the budget itself, is the pharmacare bill. Once it passes, the legislative record of this government will largely be complete.
The supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP is supposed to last until October, 2025. But it’s more likely the government will fall over the next budget in spring of next year, if not before. Once pharmacare is law, what possible reason would New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh have to keep this tired government alive?
Mr. Trudeau has pretty much run out of opportunities to change the narrative. Interest rates have not gone down as hoped. Housing starts will be down again this year, and will remain weak over the following two years, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, whatever the budget might promise. The economy crawls forward on its stomach.
The government has reached the point where it must both raise taxes and increase debt to fund programs that most of us don’t care about or don’t support. People have crossed their arms. They are simply waiting for the day when they can vote Mr. Trudeau out of office.
The Prime Minister has a choice. He can step down this spring or early summer, and let the party select a new leader. Or he can stay on and meet his fate.
Mr. Trudeau may believe that he and only he can prevent the ruination of Canada – as he sees it – at the hands of Mr. Poilievre. But how can that be true? Given the Liberals’ current electoral prospects, wouldn’t someone else – anyone else – likely fare better?
Stories have surfaced that Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc might be interested. Mark Carney, former governor of the Canadian and English central banks, is giving speeches. Others are testing the waters.
A new leader doesn’t guarantee a Liberal victory in the next election – far from it. But more might be saved than in an election with the current leader.
The Liberal Party was in the ditch when Justin Trudeau came to its rescue in 2013. He needs to ask himself in what state it will be if he stays.
John Ibbitson